Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and triggered turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
